About Bankrate's Mortgage Rate Variability Index
Mortgage Rate Variability Index - Week of Sept. 8, 2025
The Mortgage Rate Variability Index remained at 5 out of 10 as of Sept. 8, 2025, unchanged from last week’s score. Our index ranks variability from a low of 1 to a high of 10. After a tepid jobs report on Friday, mortgage rates are at their lowest levels of 2025.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this month — the central bank declined to lower rates in July as inflation remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target. However, the latest jobs report and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments last month all but guarantee that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are finally delivering some relief to borrowers. The average 30-year rate rose to 6.55 percent in Bankrate’s national survey, but that's still near the lowest level since October of last year. However, as the volatility index indicates, the recent decline in rates has been a modest dip rather than a dramatic one — unlike the big swings in 2020 and 2021, when rates plunged below 3 percent, or 2022 and 2023, when they surged as high as 8 percent.
A closer look at this week’s index
This web chart illustrates how this week’s overall index reading of 5 breaks down by factor.
| Variable |
Current week
9/8
|
Week of
9/1
|
|---|---|---|
| Variability score | 5/10 | 5/10 |
|
Average 30-year mortgage rate
This week's national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate based on Bankrate data, as compared to historical weekly changes
|
0.4 | 0.3 |
|
10-year Treasury yield
The week-over-week change in the average 10-year Treasury yield, as compared to historical weekly changes
|
0.0 | 0.2 |
|
Lender rate spread
The week-over-week change in the difference between the highest and lowest rates advertised on Bankrate, as compared to historical weekly changes
|
1.0 | 1.0 |
|
Disagreement in expert predictions
The week-over-week change in the difference in rate movement sentiment among experts polled by Bankrate, as compared to historical weekly changes
|
0.8 | 0.8 |
How we estimate mortgage rate variability
Our Mortgage Rate Variability Index is represented on a 1 to 10 scale, with 1 indicating little to no variability in mortgage rates and 10 indicating high variability. The index considers four key factors:
- Average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Our average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate is derived primarily from banks and thrifts across hundreds of markets in the U.S. We collect these rates on a rolling basis and within specific borrower scenarios. Here’s more on our mortgage rate averages.
- Average weekly 10-year Treasury yield: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, a broad economic indicator of investor sentiment.
- Weekly rate spread among mortgage lenders advertising on Bankrate: The rate spread considers the difference between the highest and lowest rates advertised on Bankrate in a given week.
- Disagreement in weekly expert mortgage rate predictions: Each week, we ask a pool of housing and mortgage market experts for their opinion on future mortgage rate movement: whether rates will increase, decrease or stay the same. Here are their latest predictions.
To determine our overall index reading, we look at how each of these four factors changed from the prior week, as well as how that compared to historical trends in variability.
Mortgage rate variability over time
Bankrate has been tracking mortgage rates for close to 40 years, and we believe that understanding longer-term trends can help you determine next steps in getting a loan. Here’s a look at our index in the past five weeks:
Tips to compare mortgage rates
- Explore a variety of mortgage lenders. Your bank or credit union might be worth considering, but they aren’t the only options. Consider different types of lenders and their loan offerings. Some specialize in certain kinds of mortgages and borrowing situations, or might offer more conveniences or savings opportunities compared to your bank.
- Shop around for several offers. Time and again, research has shown that borrowers save money by comparing more than one mortgage rate offer. We can help you shop around for rates tailored to your needs and credit profile.
- Understand the APR. The APR, or annual percentage rate, includes both the interest rate for the mortgage plus fees, so it more accurately reflects the cost of the loan. Here’s more on the difference between APR and interest rate.
Learn more: Compare today's mortgage rate offers