Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Sept. 11 - 17, 2025

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to have some slight upward pressure as the market processes CPI data on Friday and the upcoming Fed meeting.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We are expecting rates to decline in the week ahead, with traders continuing to focus on the cooling labor market and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

A brief reprieve in rates is happening with the recent labor reports being revised downward by nearly 1,000,000 jobs. This major miss is causing some to move to secure bonds, allowing rates to let off some steam. We are near the best rates in the last 12 months!

Dan Green

President, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH

Mortgage rates now reflect how Wall Street feels about the economy. They're seeing a bad labor market, poor consumer spending and a generally negative future. Rates are falling for all the worst reasons.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

After opining about 10-year Treasury yields (and therefore long-term mortgage rates) being rangebound last week, we have some noticeable movement finally and in the right direction — down. Ten-year Treasury yields are noticeably lower this week; therefore, long-term mortgage rates should be down as well.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I think rates will go down this week. We’ve seen a consistent stream of data pointing to cooling inflation and a softer labor market, which together create downward pressure on yields. The bond market has already started to reflect this sentiment, with investors positioning for the likelihood that the Fed will begin easing later this year. That shift in expectations tends to trickle directly into mortgage rates. While volatility is always possible, especially if unexpected economic reports surface, the overall momentum feels tilted toward slightly lower rates in the near term. In my view, the market is gradually moving from asking if the Fed will cut rates to when, and that change in outlook supports a modest decline this week.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Lower. The revised BLS annual total nonfarm employment report showed a loss of 911,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025. Mortgage rates are posing an 11-month low.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

Expect rates to continue their decline this week as economic reports and revisions continue to suggest softness in the economy, consumer confidence and labor market.

Denise McManus

Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers

Rates will continue to slide as bond traders feel positive about the Fed meeting next week. As bond traders are betting 100 percent chance of a rate cut, the rates have not looked this good in the past 12 months. This is the boom that we needed in the housing industry.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Down. The Fed is easing and expected to show concern about the economy.

Bennie Waller

William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama

Mortgage rates dip in anticipation of a Fed funds rate drop.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

I’m looking for largely unchanged rates over the next week. Treasury yields and mortgage rates, which move accordingly, have made some big moves to the downside of late. It would make sense for the markets to absorb those moves a bit. Once we’re past inflation data and the Federal Reserve announcement, including future guidance on rates, we’ll see how things shape up for the short-term.

Michael Becker

Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD

Given the drop in mortgage rates over the last few weeks, it will take a much lower-than-forecasted core inflation number in this week’s CPI report for the drop in rates to continue. I see us holding steady in the coming week until the Fed decision on September 17.   Mortgage rates [will be] flat in the coming week.

Nicole Rueth

Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO

Unchanged: PPI came in soft, easing wholesale inflation pressures and giving bonds a little boost, but it’s tomorrow’s CPI that will set the tone. I’m still expecting the Fed to stay the course with a 0.25 percent cut. If CPI is tame, markets have already priced it in, and rates will likely hold steady at these levels for now.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Markets experienced a significant decline in mortgage rates (and Treasury yields) following economic reports that the job market is weaker than expected and that inflation may be softening slightly. Although we aren’t seeing enough signals to suggest a 50BP cut when the Fed meets later this month, a 25BP cut is almost a sure thing, and the market has baked that into the current rate level. I look for rates to remain in the current range until we get some better idea of the true state of the U.S. economy.